WU
The Western Union Company
$6.12
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 83.4% below fair value
You pay
$6.12
Bear
$25.80
Fair
$36.86
Bull
$47.92
Bear
$25.80
+321.6%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$36.86
+502.4%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$47.92
+683.1%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
52.2%
7.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (52.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.99x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$6.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
437%
Summary
With ROTCE of 52.2% vs. 7.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $3.07 tangible book, implying $36.86 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $6.86 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 437% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly