WTI
W&T Offshore, Inc.
$3.18
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.3% below fair value
You pay
$3.18
Bear
$1.18
Fair
$3.75
Bull
$7.18
Bear
$1.18
-62.8%
FCF $47M × 8x
Fair
$3.75
+18.1%
FCF $68M × 11x
Bull
$7.18
+125.6%
FCF $88M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4.25 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.75 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($1.41) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential