WTI
W&T Offshore, Inc.
$3.67
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.0% below fair value
You pay
$3.67
Bear
$2.19
Fair
$5.63
Bull
$10.23
Bear
$2.19
-40.4%
FCF $68M × 8x
Fair
$5.63
+53.7%
FCF $96M × 11x
Bull
$10.23
+179.3%
FCF $125M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$4.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $5.63 per share. Range: $2.19 (bear) to $10.23 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($1.39) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $4.25 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential