WTI
W&T Offshore, Inc.
$4.43
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 23.6% above fair value
You pay
$4.43
Bear
$1.13
Fair
$3.59
Bull
$6.86
Bear
$1.13
-74.5%
FCF $47M × 8x
Fair
$3.59
-19.1%
FCF $68M × 11x
Bull
$6.86
+54.8%
FCF $88M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.59 per share. Range: $1.13 (bear) to $6.86 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($1.41) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -74%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential