WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corporation
$143.25
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.6% below fair value
You pay
$143.25
Bear
$103.38
Fair
$161.97
Bull
$197.13
Bear
$103.38
-27.8%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.10x TBV
Fair
$161.97
+13.1%
ROTCE 12.9% → 1.72x TBV
Bull
$197.13
+37.6%
ROTCE 14.9% → 2.09x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
12.9%
9.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.52x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$179.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
With ROTCE of 12.9% vs. 9.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.72x on $94.34 tangible book, implying $161.97 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly