WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corporation
$149.89
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.7% below fair value
You pay
$149.89
Bear
$108.36
Fair
$169.78
Bull
$206.63
Bear
$108.36
-27.7%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.14x TBV
Fair
$169.78
+13.3%
ROTCE 12.9% → 1.78x TBV
Bull
$206.63
+37.9%
ROTCE 14.9% → 2.17x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.59x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $174.57 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $169.78 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly