WST
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.
$362.16
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 251.6% above fair value
You pay
$362.16
Bear
$82.40
Fair
$103.00
Bull
$123.61
Bear
$82.40
-77.2%
$6.80 × 12x P/E
Fair
$103.00
-71.6%
$6.80 × 15x P/E
Bull
$123.61
-65.9%
$6.80 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.1x
6.8$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
53.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$407.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.80, the base-case value is $103.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $23.46.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $23.46 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $407.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples