WRBY Warby Parker Inc.
$24.11
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 7767.7% above fair value

You pay $24.11
Bear $0.27
Fair $0.31
Bull $0.34
Bear $0.27 -98.9% $0.01 × 20x P/E
Fair $0.31 -98.7% $0.01 × 23x P/E
Bull $0.34 -98.6% $0.01 × 26x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

23.4x
0.01$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 1840.1x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (16 analysts) $30.60
Divergence from AlphaVal 99%

Summary

Applying a 23x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.01, the base-case value is $0.31 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $30.60 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples