WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
$63.90
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.7% below fair value
You pay
$63.90
Bear
$61.70
Fair
$74.92
Bull
$88.14
Bear
$61.70
-3.4%
$4.41 FFO × 14x
Fair
$74.92
+17.2%
$4.41 FFO × 17x
Bull
$88.14
+37.9%
$4.41 FFO × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.41) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$77.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
At $4.41 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $74.92 per share. Dividend yield: 5.9%. DDM cross-check: $69.70.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify