WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
$70.56
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.2% below fair value
You pay
$70.56
Bear
$60.69
Fair
$73.69
Bull
$86.69
Bear
$60.69
-14.0%
$4.33 FFO × 14x
Fair
$73.69
+4.4%
$4.33 FFO × 17x
Bull
$86.69
+22.9%
$4.33 FFO × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.33) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
16.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
At $4.33 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $73.69 per share. Dividend yield: 5.2%. DDM cross-check: $68.95.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify