WMT
Walmart Inc.
$113.70
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.0% above fair value
You pay
$113.70
Bear
$90.05
Fair
$109.35
Bull
$128.64
Bear
$90.05
-20.8%
$2.73 × 28x P/E
Fair
$109.35
-3.8%
$2.73 × 34x P/E
Bull
$128.64
+13.1%
$2.73 × 40x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
41.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.04 from 66 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $140.04 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples