WMT
Walmart Inc.
$113.35
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.1% above fair value
You pay
$113.35
Bear
$76.44
Fair
$92.82
Bull
$109.20
Bear
$76.44
-32.6%
$2.73 × 28x P/E
Fair
$92.82
-18.1%
$2.73 × 34x P/E
Bull
$109.20
-3.7%
$2.73 × 40x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
34.0x
2.73$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
41.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (66 analysts)
$128.84
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Applying a 34x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.73, the base-case value is $92.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $128.84 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples