WMK Weis Markets, Inc.
$72.30
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 61.6% above fair value

You pay $72.30
Bear $37.28
Fair $44.73
Bull $52.19
Bear $37.28 -48.4% $3.73 × 10x P/E
Fair $44.73 -38.1% $3.73 × 12x P/E
Bull $52.19 -27.8% $3.73 × 14x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.73, the base-case value is $44.73 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.82.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $20.82 (below our primary estimate by 53%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples