WMK
Weis Markets, Inc.
$79.58
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 77.9% above fair value
You pay
$79.58
Bear
$37.28
Fair
$44.73
Bull
$52.19
Bear
$37.28
-53.2%
$3.73 × 10x P/E
Fair
$44.73
-43.8%
$3.73 × 12x P/E
Bull
$52.19
-34.4%
$3.73 × 14x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.3x
Summary
Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.73, the base-case value is $44.73 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.82.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $20.82 (below our primary estimate by 53%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples