WLY
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
$54.04
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.8% below fair value
You pay
$54.04
Bear
$53.92
Fair
$67.41
Bull
$80.89
Bear
$53.92
-0.2%
$4.16 × 13x P/E
Fair
$67.41
+24.7%
$4.16 × 16x P/E
Bull
$80.89
+49.7%
$4.16 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.2x
4.16$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.0x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.16, the base-case value is $67.41 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.52.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $20.52 (below our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples