WLY
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
$50.29
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.4% below fair value
You pay
$50.29
Bear
$53.92
Fair
$67.41
Bull
$80.89
Bear
$53.92
+7.2%
$4.16 × 13x P/E
Fair
$67.41
+34.0%
$4.16 × 16x P/E
Bull
$80.89
+60.8%
$4.16 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.2x
4.16$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.1x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.16, the base-case value is $67.41 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.56.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $20.56 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples