WLY
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
$42.34
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 28.9% above fair value
You pay
$42.34
Bear
$26.28
Fair
$32.85
Bull
$39.42
Bear
$26.28
-37.9%
$2.19 × 12x P/E
Fair
$32.85
-22.4%
$2.19 × 15x P/E
Bull
$39.42
-6.9%
$2.19 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.3x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.19, the base-case value is $32.85 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.49.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 43%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 93% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.49 (below our primary estimate by 38%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples