WLY
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
$49.80
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.0% below fair value
You pay
$49.80
Bear
$68.66
Fair
$85.83
Bull
$102.99
Bear
$68.66
+37.9%
$5.30 × 13x P/E
Fair
$85.83
+72.3%
$5.30 × 16x P/E
Bull
$102.99
+106.8%
$5.30 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.4x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.30, the base-case value is $85.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.52.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $20.52 (below our primary estimate by 76%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples