WLFC
Willis Lease Finance Corporation
$40.01
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 40.2% above fair value
You pay
$40.01
Bear
$22.82
Fair
$28.53
Bull
$34.24
Bear
$22.82
-43.0%
$1.71 × 13x P/E
Fair
$28.53
-28.7%
$1.71 × 17x P/E
Bull
$34.24
-14.4%
$1.71 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.7x
1.71$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.4x
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.71, the base-case value is $28.53 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples