WLFC
Willis Lease Finance Corporation
$182.70
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.2% below fair value
You pay
$182.70
Bear
$277.06
Fair
$346.33
Bull
$415.60
Bear
$277.06
+51.6%
$15.39 × 18x P/E
Fair
$346.33
+89.6%
$15.39 × 22x P/E
Bull
$415.60
+127.5%
$15.39 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.9x
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $15.39, the base-case value is $346.33 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples