WING
Wingstop Inc.
$122.26
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.0% below fair value
You pay
$122.26
Bear
$167.67
Fair
$200.27
Bull
$232.88
Bear
$167.67
+37.1%
$6.21 × 27x P/E
Fair
$200.27
+63.8%
$6.21 × 32x P/E
Bull
$232.88
+90.5%
$6.21 × 38x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
32.2x
6.21$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$205.07
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.21, the base-case value is $200.27 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples