WING Wingstop Inc.
$153.29
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 32.3% below fair value

You pay $153.29
Bear $189.50
Fair $226.35
Bull $263.20
Bear $189.50 +23.6% $6.36 × 27x P/E
Fair $226.35 +47.7% $6.36 × 32x P/E
Bull $263.20 +71.7% $6.36 × 38x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $275.64 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $226.35 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $275.64 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples