WING
Wingstop Inc.
$113.85
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.2% below fair value
You pay
$113.85
Bear
$167.67
Fair
$200.27
Bull
$232.88
Bear
$167.67
+47.3%
$6.21 × 27x P/E
Fair
$200.27
+75.9%
$6.21 × 32x P/E
Bull
$232.88
+104.5%
$6.21 × 38x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
32.2x
6.21$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$214.07
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.21, the base-case value is $200.27 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples