WING
Wingstop Inc.
$140.41
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.8% below fair value
You pay
$140.41
Bear
$192.08
Fair
$229.43
Bull
$266.78
Bear
$192.08
+36.8%
$6.36 × 27x P/E
Fair
$229.43
+63.4%
$6.36 × 32x P/E
Bull
$266.78
+90.0%
$6.36 × 38x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $285.93 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $229.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $285.93 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples