WINA
Winmark Corporation
$364.86
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 100.9% above fair value
You pay
$364.86
Bear
$158.90
Fair
$181.60
Bull
$204.30
Bear
$158.90
-56.4%
$11.35 × 14x P/E
Fair
$181.60
-50.2%
$11.35 × 16x P/E
Bull
$204.30
-44.0%
$11.35 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.1x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $11.35, the base-case value is $181.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $7341.70.
Warnings
The company pays out 123% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $7341.70 (above our primary estimate by 3943%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples