WINA
Winmark Corporation
$346.07
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 91.4% above fair value
You pay
$346.07
Bear
$158.20
Fair
$180.80
Bull
$203.40
Bear
$158.20
-54.3%
$11.30 × 14x P/E
Fair
$180.80
-47.8%
$11.30 × 16x P/E
Bull
$203.40
-41.2%
$11.30 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
11.3$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.6x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $11.30, the base-case value is $180.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $2245.26.
Warnings
The company pays out 124% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $2245.26 (above our primary estimate by 1142%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples