WHD
Cactus, Inc.
$69.82
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.8% above fair value
You pay
$69.82
Bear
$31.21
Fair
$47.89
Bull
$68.86
Bear
$31.21
-55.3%
FCF $171M × 10x
Fair
$47.89
-31.4%
FCF $221M × 13x
Bull
$68.86
-1.4%
FCF $270M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$72.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $47.89 per share. Range: $31.21 (bear) to $68.86 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.67 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential