WHD
Cactus, Inc.
$63.15
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 32.5% above fair value
You pay
$63.15
Bear
$31.07
Fair
$47.67
Bull
$68.55
Bear
$31.07
-50.8%
FCF $171M × 10x
Fair
$47.67
-24.5%
FCF $221M × 13x
Bull
$68.55
+8.5%
FCF $270M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$73.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $47.67 per share. Range: $31.07 (bear) to $68.55 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $73.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential