WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
$71.79
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 40.8% above fair value
You pay
$71.79
Bear
$40.80
Fair
$51.00
Bull
$61.20
Bear
$40.80
-43.2%
$3.40 × 12x P/E
Fair
$51.00
-29.0%
$3.40 × 15x P/E
Bull
$61.20
-14.8%
$3.40 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.4$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$96.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.40, the base-case value is $51.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $83.28.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $83.28 (above our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $96.71 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples