WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
$82.41
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 49.2% above fair value

You pay $82.41
Bear $44.19
Fair $55.25
Bull $66.30
Bear $44.19 -46.4% $2.74 × 12x P/E
Fair $55.25 -33.0% $2.74 × 15x P/E
Bull $66.30 -19.6% $2.74 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.50 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.25 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $172.96 (above our primary estimate by 320%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $97.50 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples