WGO
Winnebago Industries, Inc.
$24.99
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.1% below fair value
You pay
$24.99
Bear
$24.92
Fair
$34.27
Bull
$43.61
Bear
$24.92
-0.3%
$6.23 × 4x
Fair
$34.27
+37.1%
$6.23 × 6x
Bull
$43.61
+74.5%
$6.23 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
6.23$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.23)
Implied Market Multiple
4.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $6.23 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $34.27 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 0.6x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 0.6x is below the typical low point. This could be a bargain, but check whether asset write-downs are coming.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing