WGO
Winnebago Industries, Inc.
$31.03
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.4% below fair value
You pay
$31.03
Bear
$24.92
Fair
$34.27
Bull
$43.61
Bear
$24.92
-19.7%
$6.23 × 4x
Fair
$34.27
+10.4%
$6.23 × 6x
Bull
$43.61
+40.5%
$6.23 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
6.23$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.23)
Implied Market Multiple
5.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $6.23 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $34.27 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 3.1x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 3.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing