WFRD
Weatherford International plc
$108.79
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.8% above fair value
You pay
$108.79
Bear
$40.34
Fair
$74.64
Bull
$117.75
Bear
$40.34
-62.9%
FCF $349M × 10x
Fair
$74.64
-31.4%
FCF $450M × 13x
Bull
$117.75
+8.2%
FCF $551M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.00 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.64 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential