WFRD
Weatherford International plc
$88.68
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.6% below fair value
You pay
$88.68
Bear
$52.42
Fair
$97.00
Bull
$153.04
Bear
$52.42
-40.9%
FCF $349M × 10x
Fair
$97.00
+9.4%
FCF $450M × 13x
Bull
$153.04
+72.6%
FCF $551M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $156.00 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.00 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $156.00 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential