WFRD
Weatherford International plc
$76.19
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.6% below fair value
You pay
$76.19
Bear
$51.10
Fair
$92.43
Bull
$144.40
Bear
$51.10
-32.9%
FCF $436M × 10x
Fair
$92.43
+21.3%
FCF $563M × 13x
Bull
$144.40
+89.5%
FCF $690M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$136.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $92.43 per share. Range: $51.10 (bear) to $144.40 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $136.00 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential