WEX
WEX Inc.
$155.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.7% above fair value
You pay
$155.09
Bear
$121.82
Fair
$153.97
Bull
$184.45
Bear
$121.82
-21.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$153.97
-0.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$184.45
+18.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
21.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.6%
vs 8.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $174.29 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $153.97 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions