WEN
The Wendy's Company
$6.23
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.9% below fair value
You pay
$6.23
Bear
$15.30
Fair
$18.27
Bull
$21.25
Bear
$15.30
+145.6%
$0.85 × 18x P/E
Fair
$18.27
+193.3%
$0.85 × 22x P/E
Bull
$21.25
+241.1%
$0.85 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
0.85$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (51 analysts)
$7.58
Divergence from AlphaVal
141%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.85, the base-case value is $18.27 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $7.58 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 141% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples