WEC
WEC Energy Group, Inc.
$111.09
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.8% above fair value
You pay
$111.09
Bear
$67.62
Fair
$77.28
Bull
$86.94
Bear
$67.62
-39.1%
$4.83 × 14x P/E
Fair
$77.28
-30.4%
$4.83 × 16x P/E
Bull
$86.94
-21.7%
$4.83 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
4.83$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$115.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.83, the base-case value is $77.28 per share. DDM cross-check: $162.55.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $162.55 (above our primary estimate by 110%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $115.50 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples