WDFC
WD-40 Company
$207.30
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 44.7% above fair value
You pay
$207.30
Bear
$114.64
Fair
$143.30
Bull
$171.96
Bear
$114.64
-44.7%
$6.71 × 12x P/E
Fair
$143.30
-30.9%
$6.71 × 16x P/E
Bull
$171.96
-17.0%
$6.71 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $300.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $143.30 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $165.10 (above our primary estimate by 59%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $300.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples