WDFC
WD-40 Company
$199.04
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 91.6% above fair value
You pay
$199.04
Bear
$83.10
Fair
$103.87
Bull
$124.65
Bear
$83.10
-58.3%
$6.69 × 12x P/E
Fair
$103.87
-47.8%
$6.69 × 16x P/E
Bull
$124.65
-37.4%
$6.69 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.5x
6.69$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
29.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$475.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.69, the base-case value is $103.87 per share. DDM cross-check: $169.06.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $169.06 (above our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $475.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples