WDFC
WD-40 Company
$212.71
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 133.2% above fair value
You pay
$212.71
Bear
$72.96
Fair
$91.20
Bull
$109.44
Bear
$72.96
-65.7%
$6.08 × 12x P/E
Fair
$91.20
-57.1%
$6.08 × 15x P/E
Bull
$109.44
-48.5%
$6.08 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$475.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.08, the base-case value is $91.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $173.01.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $173.01 (above our primary estimate by 90%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $475.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples