WD
Walker & Dunlop, Inc.
$33.43
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.2% below fair value
You pay
$33.43
Bear
$68.85
Fair
$86.07
Bull
$103.28
Bear
$68.85
+106.0%
$5.17 × 13x P/E
Fair
$86.07
+157.5%
$5.17 × 17x P/E
Bull
$103.28
+208.9%
$5.17 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.6x
5.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$69.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.17, the base-case value is $86.07 per share. DDM cross-check: $60.03.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 215%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 165% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $60.03 (below our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples