WCN
Waste Connections, Inc.
$186.60
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 165.9% above fair value
You pay
$186.60
Bear
$46.60
Fair
$70.18
Bull
$92.38
Bear
$46.60
-75.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$70.18
-62.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$92.38
-50.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
39.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.2%
vs 8.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$199.57
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $70.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $199.57 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions