WCN
Waste Connections, Inc.
$169.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.8% above fair value
You pay
$169.61
Bear
$60.91
Fair
$100.45
Bull
$138.40
Bear
$60.91
-64.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$100.45
-40.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$138.40
-18.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
45.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.9%
vs 9.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $205.50 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $205.50 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions