WCC
WESCO International, Inc.
$329.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 94.4% above fair value
You pay
$329.50
Bear
$85.38
Fair
$169.51
Bull
$255.56
Bear
$85.38
-74.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$169.51
-48.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$255.56
-22.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
33.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.8%
vs 11.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$402.22
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $169.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $402.22 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions