WAY
Waystar Holding Corp.
$28.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.5% below fair value
You pay
$28.84
Bear
$27.81
Fair
$51.97
Bull
$80.51
Bear
$27.81
-3.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$51.97
+80.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$80.51
+179.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 17.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$32.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $51.97 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.89 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions