WAT
Waters Corporation
$433.77
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 168.8% above fair value
You pay
$433.77
Bear
$129.12
Fair
$161.40
Bull
$193.68
Bear
$129.12
-70.2%
$10.76 × 12x P/E
Fair
$161.40
-62.8%
$10.76 × 15x P/E
Bull
$193.68
-55.3%
$10.76 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
10.76$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$453.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.76, the base-case value is $161.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $453.50 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples