WAT Waters Corporation
$342.37
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 41.8% above fair value

You pay $342.37
Bear $193.17
Fair $241.46
Bull $289.75
Bear $193.17 -43.6% $11.49 × 12x P/E
Fair $241.46 -29.5% $11.49 × 15x P/E
Bull $289.75 -15.4% $11.49 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $402.75 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $241.46 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $402.75 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples