WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
$277.67
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.7% above fair value
You pay
$277.67
Bear
$161.25
Fair
$267.82
Bull
$386.22
Bear
$161.25
-41.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$267.82
-3.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$386.22
+39.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
32.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.3%
vs 14.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$341.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $267.82 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions