VYGR
Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.
$3.09
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 84.8% below fair value
You pay
$3.09
Bear
$13.54
Fair
$20.31
Bull
$27.07
Bear
$13.54
+338.1%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$20.31
+557.3%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$27.07
+776.2%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
1.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.40 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.31 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.40 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case