VYGR
Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.
$3.80
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 89.5% below fair value
You pay
$3.80
Bear
$30.92
Fair
$36.07
Bull
$41.22
Bear
$30.92
+713.6%
$2.97 × 12x P/E
Fair
$36.07
+849.1%
$2.97 × 15x P/E
Bull
$41.22
+984.9%
$2.97 × 17x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
1.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.40 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.40 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 201% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples