VYGR Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.
$3.80
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 89.5% below fair value

You pay $3.80
Bear $30.92
Fair $36.07
Bull $41.22
Bear $30.92 +713.6% $2.97 × 12x P/E
Fair $36.07 +849.1% $2.97 × 15x P/E
Bull $41.22 +984.9% $2.97 × 17x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 1.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.40 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.07 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $14.40 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 201% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples