VVX
V2X, Inc.
$70.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.4% below fair value
You pay
$70.17
Bear
$88.54
Fair
$126.26
Bull
$162.95
Bear
$88.54
+26.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$126.26
+79.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$162.95
+132.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.4%
vs 9.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $126.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $88.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions