VVX
V2X, Inc.
$83.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.8% above fair value
You pay
$83.61
Bear
$54.86
Fair
$80.51
Bull
$105.27
Bear
$54.86
-34.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$80.51
-3.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$105.27
+25.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.8%
vs 9.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $80.51 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions