VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
$18.25
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 77.4% above fair value
You pay
$18.25
Bear
$3.74
Fair
$10.29
Bull
$19.01
Bear
$3.74
-79.5%
FCF $36M × 8x
Fair
$10.29
-43.6%
FCF $51M × 11x
Bull
$19.01
+4.2%
FCF $66M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$21.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $10.29 per share. Range: $3.74 (bear) to $19.01 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -80%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential