VTRS
Viatris Inc.
$16.65
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.7% below fair value
You pay
$16.65
Bear
$18.95
Fair
$22.11
Bull
$25.26
Bear
$18.95
+13.8%
$1.66 × 12x P/E
Fair
$22.11
+32.8%
$1.66 × 14x P/E
Bull
$25.26
+51.7%
$1.66 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.40 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.11 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $6.93 (below our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.40 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples