VTRS
Viatris Inc.
$17.32
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.1% below fair value
You pay
$17.32
Bear
$19.05
Fair
$22.23
Bull
$25.40
Bear
$19.05
+10.0%
$1.66 × 12x P/E
Fair
$22.23
+28.3%
$1.66 × 14x P/E
Bull
$25.40
+46.6%
$1.66 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.23 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $6.93 (below our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples