VTR
Ventas, Inc.
$97.72
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.1% above fair value
You pay
$97.72
Bear
$53.31
Fair
$67.34
Bull
$81.39
Bear
$53.31
-45.4%
$3.35 FFO × 15x
Fair
$67.34
-31.1%
$3.35 FFO × 19x
Bull
$81.39
-16.7%
$3.35 FFO × 23x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.35) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
29.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.71 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.34 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $34.79 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $96.71 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify