VTOL
Bristow Group Inc.
$42.73
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1044.8% above fair value
You pay
$42.73
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$3.73
Bull
$16.25
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $44M × 10x
Fair
$3.73
-91.3%
FCF $56M × 13x
Bull
$16.25
-62.0%
FCF $69M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.6x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.73 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $16.25 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($20.92) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential