VTOL
Bristow Group Inc.
$38.60
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.3% above fair value
You pay
$38.60
Bear
$2.72
Fair
$18.71
Bull
$38.82
Bear
$2.72
-93.0%
FCF $70M × 10x
Fair
$18.71
-51.5%
FCF $90M × 13x
Bull
$38.82
+0.6%
FCF $111M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $18.71 per share. Range: $2.72 (bear) to $38.82 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($20.90) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -93%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential