VSXY
Victoria's Secret & Company
$85.32
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 93.3% above fair value
You pay
$85.32
Bear
$35.30
Fair
$44.14
Bull
$52.96
Bear
$35.30
-58.6%
$2.21 × 12x P/E
Fair
$44.14
-48.3%
$2.21 × 15x P/E
Bull
$52.96
-37.9%
$2.21 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
38.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.14 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $88.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples