VST
Vistra Corp.
$156.14
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 217.9% above fair value
You pay
$156.14
Bear
$40.18
Fair
$49.11
Bull
$58.04
Bear
$40.18
-74.3%
$2.21 × 18x P/E
Fair
$49.11
-68.5%
$2.21 × 22x P/E
Bull
$58.04
-62.8%
$2.21 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.2x
2.21$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
70.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$208.85
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.21, the base-case value is $49.11 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.02.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $208.85 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples