VST
Vistra Corp.
$157.99
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.0% above fair value
You pay
$157.99
Bear
$102.58
Fair
$125.37
Bull
$148.16
Bear
$102.58
-35.1%
$3.66 × 21x P/E
Fair
$125.37
-20.6%
$3.66 × 26x P/E
Bull
$148.16
-6.2%
$3.66 × 30x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
43.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $221.13 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $125.37 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 66%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $221.13 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples