VST
Vistra Corp.
$149.30
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 164.8% above fair value
You pay
$149.30
Bear
$46.14
Fair
$56.39
Bull
$66.64
Bear
$46.14
-69.1%
$2.21 × 21x P/E
Fair
$56.39
-62.2%
$2.21 × 26x P/E
Bull
$66.64
-55.4%
$2.21 × 30x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
25.5x
2.21$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
67.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$217.45
Divergence from AlphaVal
74%
Summary
Applying a 26x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.21, the base-case value is $56.39 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.02.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $217.45 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples