VST
Vistra Corp.
$156.27
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 23.3% above fair value
You pay
$156.27
Bear
$103.72
Fair
$126.76
Bull
$149.81
Bear
$103.72
-33.6%
$3.66 × 21x P/E
Fair
$126.76
-18.9%
$3.66 × 26x P/E
Bull
$149.81
-4.1%
$3.66 × 30x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
42.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $226.70 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $126.76 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 66%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $226.70 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples