VSH
Vishay Intertechnology, Inc.
$30.73
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.3% below fair value
You pay
$30.73
Bear
$24.60
Fair
$32.80
Bull
$41.00
Bear
$24.60
-19.9%
$2.05 × 12x
Fair
$32.80
+6.7%
$2.05 × 16x
Bull
$41.00
+33.4%
$2.05 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.05$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.05)
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.05 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $32.80 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.4x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
This stock is 56% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing