VSAT
Viasat, Inc.
$74.56
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 222.1% above fair value
You pay
$74.56
Bear
$18.52
Fair
$23.14
Bull
$27.77
Bear
$18.52
-75.2%
$0.41 × 16x P/E
Fair
$23.14
-69.0%
$0.41 × 20x P/E
Bull
$27.77
-62.8%
$0.41 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
181.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.25 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.14 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $68.25 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples