VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
$318.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.9% above fair value
You pay
$318.86
Bear
$124.63
Fair
$218.52
Bull
$331.74
Bear
$124.63
-60.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$218.52
-31.5%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$331.74
+4.0%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
66.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.2%
vs 18.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $375.08 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $218.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $375.08 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions