VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
$198.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.5% above fair value
You pay
$198.48
Bear
$98.27
Fair
$171.85
Bull
$260.59
Bear
$98.27
-50.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$171.85
-13.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$260.59
+31.3%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
40.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.5%
vs 18.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$364.94
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $171.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $364.94 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions