VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
$280.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 63.7% above fair value
You pay
$280.53
Bear
$97.82
Fair
$171.40
Bull
$260.13
Bear
$97.82
-65.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$171.40
-38.9%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$260.13
-7.3%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
57.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.1%
vs 18.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$368.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $171.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $368.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions