VRSN VeriSign, Inc.
$291.93
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 54.1% above fair value

You pay $291.93
Bear $158.58
Fair $189.42
Bull $220.25
Bear $158.58 -45.7% $8.81 × 18x P/E
Fair $189.42 -35.1% $8.81 × 22x P/E
Bull $220.25 -24.6% $8.81 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
8.81$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.1x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (15 analysts) $339.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 44%

Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.81, the base-case value is $189.42 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $339.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples