VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
$171.11
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.2% above fair value
You pay
$171.11
Bear
$138.78
Fair
$165.77
Bull
$192.76
Bear
$138.78
-18.9%
$6.70 × 18x P/E
Fair
$165.77
-3.1%
$6.70 × 22x P/E
Bull
$192.76
+12.7%
$6.70 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $231.25 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $231.25 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples