VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
$196.19
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 40.6% above fair value
You pay
$196.19
Bear
$116.82
Fair
$139.53
Bull
$162.25
Bear
$116.82
-40.5%
$6.49 × 18x P/E
Fair
$139.53
-28.9%
$6.49 × 22x P/E
Bull
$162.25
-17.3%
$6.49 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
6.49$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$224.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.49, the base-case value is $139.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $224.38 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples