VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
$201.34
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.2% above fair value
You pay
$201.34
Bear
$137.89
Fair
$164.71
Bull
$191.52
Bear
$137.89
-31.5%
$6.70 × 18x P/E
Fair
$164.71
-18.2%
$6.70 × 22x P/E
Bull
$191.52
-4.9%
$6.70 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $227.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $164.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $227.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples