VREX Varex Imaging Corporation
$18.50
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 186.8% above fair value

You pay $18.50
Bear $5.16
Fair $6.45
Bull $7.74
Bear $5.16 -72.1% $0.43 × 12x P/E
Fair $6.45 -65.1% $0.43 × 15x P/E
Bull $7.74 -58.2% $0.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 43.0x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (7 analysts) $14.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 56%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.43, the base-case value is $6.45 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples