VOYA
Voya Financial, Inc.
$98.52
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.3% above fair value
You pay
$98.52
Bear
$61.74
Fair
$96.27
Bull
$116.99
Bear
$61.74
-37.3%
ROTCE 9.9% → 1.12x TBV
Fair
$96.27
-2.3%
ROTCE 13.2% → 1.75x TBV
Bull
$116.99
+18.7%
ROTCE 15.2% → 2.13x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.78 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.27 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly