VOD
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company
$16.39
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.1% below fair value
You pay
$16.39
Bear
$16.61
Fair
$20.76
Bull
$24.92
Bear
$16.61
+1.4%
$1.06 × 18x P/E
Fair
$20.76
+26.7%
$1.06 × 22x P/E
Bull
$24.92
+52.0%
$1.06 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.58 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.76 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $11.58 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 106% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1384 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples