VOD
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company
$15.87
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.6% above fair value
You pay
$15.87
Bear
$8.49
Fair
$10.61
Bull
$12.73
Bear
$8.49
-46.5%
$0.47 × 18x P/E
Fair
$10.61
-33.1%
$0.47 × 22x P/E
Bull
$12.73
-19.8%
$0.47 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
0.47$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$20.93
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.47, the base-case value is $10.61 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $20.93 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1228 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples