VOD Vodafone Group Public Limited Company
$14.94
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 29.3% below fair value

You pay $14.94
Bear $16.92
Fair $21.14
Bull $25.37
Bear $16.92 +13.2% $1.08 × 18x P/E
Fair $21.14 +41.5% $1.08 × 22x P/E
Bull $25.37 +69.8% $1.08 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.58 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.14 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $11.58 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 110% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1629 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples