VNDA
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$3.94
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.8% above fair value
You pay
$3.94
Bear
$2.00
Fair
$2.33
Bull
$2.67
Bear
$2.00
-49.2%
$0.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$2.33
-40.8%
$0.17 × 14x P/E
Bull
$2.67
-32.3%
$0.17 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
0.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$15.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
85%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.17, the base-case value is $2.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 60% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples