VNDA
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$5.09
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 118.1% above fair value
You pay
$5.09
Bear
$2.00
Fair
$2.33
Bull
$2.67
Bear
$2.00
-60.7%
$0.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$2.33
-54.1%
$0.17 × 14x P/E
Bull
$2.67
-47.6%
$0.17 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
0.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$21.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
89%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.17, the base-case value is $2.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples