VNCE
Vince Holding Corp.
$4.82
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 84.2% below fair value
You pay
$4.82
Bear
$24.48
Fair
$30.60
Bull
$36.72
Bear
$24.48
+407.9%
$2.04 × 12x P/E
Fair
$30.60
+534.9%
$2.04 × 15x P/E
Bull
$36.72
+661.8%
$2.04 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
2.4x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.04, the base-case value is $30.60 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 316%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples