VMRK
Vivmark Residential
$60.86
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.6% below fair value
You pay
$60.86
Bear
$77.26
Fair
$91.60
Bull
$105.94
Bear
$77.26
+27.0%
$5.72 FFO × 16x
Fair
$91.60
+50.5%
$5.72 FFO × 19x
Bull
$105.94
+74.1%
$5.72 FFO × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
19.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.72) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$71.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
At $5.72 FFO/share with a 19x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $91.60 per share. Dividend yield: 4.6%. DDM cross-check: $51.92.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $51.92 (43% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.75 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify