VMI
Valmont Industries, Inc.
$478.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 98.7% above fair value
You pay
$479.07
Bear
$189.23
Fair
$241.07
Bull
$288.22
Bear
$189.23
-60.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$241.07
-49.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$288.22
-39.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
28.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.7%
vs 7.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$639.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $241.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $639.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions