VMI
Valmont Industries, Inc.
$435.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 80.5% above fair value
You pay
$435.01
Bear
$189.23
Fair
$241.07
Bull
$288.22
Bear
$189.23
-56.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$241.07
-44.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$288.22
-33.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
26.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.5%
vs 7.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$611.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
61%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $241.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $611.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions