VMD
Viemed Healthcare, Inc.
$11.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 180.2% above fair value
You pay
$11.95
Bear
$2.65
Fair
$4.27
Bull
$6.09
Bear
$2.65
-77.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.27
-64.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$6.09
-49.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
90.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.1%
vs 15.5% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.27 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 61% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions