VMD
Viemed Healthcare, Inc.
$9.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 95.6% above fair value
You pay
$9.80
Bear
$3.12
Fair
$5.01
Bull
$7.14
Bear
$3.12
-68.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.01
-48.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$7.14
-27.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
63.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.4%
vs 15.5% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.01 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 61% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions