VMC
Vulcan Materials Company
$244.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.3% above fair value
You pay
$244.58
Bear
$140.51
Fair
$203.36
Bull
$265.14
Bear
$140.51
-42.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$203.36
-16.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$265.14
+8.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
25.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.1%
vs 10.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$308.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $203.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $308.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions