VITL
Vital Farms, Inc.
$13.18
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 32.1% below fair value
You pay
$13.18
Bear
$15.54
Fair
$19.42
Bull
$23.30
Bear
$15.54
+17.9%
$1.44 × 12x P/E
Fair
$19.42
+47.3%
$1.44 × 15x P/E
Bull
$23.30
+76.8%
$1.44 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.88 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $12.88 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples