VITL
Vital Farms, Inc.
$9.34
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.8% below fair value
You pay
$9.34
Bear
$17.28
Fair
$21.60
Bull
$25.92
Bear
$17.28
+85.0%
$1.44 × 12x P/E
Fair
$21.60
+131.3%
$1.44 × 15x P/E
Bull
$25.92
+177.5%
$1.44 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.44$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$13.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.44, the base-case value is $21.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.11 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples