VIRT
Virtu Financial, Inc.
$64.28
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.8% below fair value
You pay
$64.28
Bear
$58.30
Fair
$83.28
Bull
$108.25
Bear
$58.30
-9.3%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$83.28
+29.6%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$108.25
+68.4%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (168.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.28 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly